Full Version: Weekend Weather
Crap. Hope it changes.
If they hadn't screwed us with 2 away games, we would have had a home opener on 17th - would have been nice.
QUOTE(Buffalo Mike1 @ Sep 15 2006, 05:55 PM)
Crap. Hope it changes.
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Knowing the accuracy of their 10 day forecasts, it will change 15 times between now and then
Nothing, including the weather, is going to put a damper on this game!
QUOTE(Jack In Syracuse @ Oct 14 2004, 08:16 AM)
I have been monitoring the forecast for several days now. Although the models are bouncing around it appears we are looking at a "changeable" weather situation which means some showers......mostly light.... and some breaks in the clouds.
Looks like mostly cloudy, scattered showers, high of about 65-69 degrees.
Jeans, tee, with a button up Bills shirt, light jacket and raincoat/covering should do you nicely folks.
Don't forget to eat some of my wings!!!!
-RichNJoisy (meteorologist)
CNJBBB
Weekend weather:
http://www.weather.com/outlook/events/spor...r_topnav_sports
Sounds too cold for wet t-shirt weather
At least I do not need to worry about heatstroke this year.
http://www.weather.com/outlook/events/spor...r_topnav_sports
Sounds too cold for wet t-shirt weather
At least I do not need to worry about heatstroke this year.
The weekend weather is beginning to become clearer as the higher resolution models begin to come into range of the weekend forecast. it is still a little too early to see the event completely but it appears that the longer range models are underestimating the strength of the the leading system and thus underestimating the strength of the front coming through on Saturday.
Right now, it looks like the system will strengthen and stall to the north and west of Buffalo . Meanwhile , the ridge to our east also strengthens. If this "damming" takes place, the question becomes where does the moisture line stall? At this time, it looks like it will be east and south of Orchard Park. A dry slot will develop as the storm wraps itself up over Green Bay. Whereever the dry slot is - it will actually warm up a bit!
Suffice it to say, this bears watching.
The edge of the forecast range extends to Sunday afternoon about this time tomorrow.
Right now, I am cautiously optimistic that we might luck out and be sitting in the dry slot.
stay tuned.......
Right now, it looks like the system will strengthen and stall to the north and west of Buffalo . Meanwhile , the ridge to our east also strengthens. If this "damming" takes place, the question becomes where does the moisture line stall? At this time, it looks like it will be east and south of Orchard Park. A dry slot will develop as the storm wraps itself up over Green Bay. Whereever the dry slot is - it will actually warm up a bit!
Suffice it to say, this bears watching.
The edge of the forecast range extends to Sunday afternoon about this time tomorrow.
Right now, I am cautiously optimistic that we might luck out and be sitting in the dry slot.
stay tuned.......
I love it when you talk weather 
QUOTE(aussiew @ Sep 20 2006, 11:48 AM)
I love it when you talk weather
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I'd rather watch game in rain and have dry tailgate than dry game and rain at tailgate.
QUOTE(G. Host @ Sep 20 2006, 11:29 PM)
I'd rather watch game in rain and have dry tailgate than dry game and rain at tailgate.
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I'll be posting another update after the late morning runs come in.
The overnight runs are starting to show the beginning of a convergence in the model runs towards the high resolution model - where a strong cold front goes through WNY in the early morning, Sunday - strong winds / rain/ and some thunderstorms.
After the front passes, the anticipated dry line is shaping up right near us and , hopefully, right over us. It will be windy though no matter what.
A secondary front is another concern - which will be passing through durign the day Sunday and into Monday (The upper air low is trailing the surface low) . This will keep the region unsettled - and possibly showery. This secondary wave is much weaker than the first and more a nuisance than anything else.
Update around 11 am.
-RnJ
O.K> here's the update as of 1:30 pm Thursday:
The GFS model (Global, low resolution compared to the regional higher resolution NAM model) has shifted markedly towards the NAM solution. This is the best we could have hoped for for Sunday. It is still going to be wet BUT the dry slot I mentioned in my earlier forecasts is still evident on the simulation but the instability behind the front will make for , at best, scattered showers conditions.
Now for the specifics:
Moderate to heavy rain will fall overnight from after midnight to around 5 or 6 am. The rain will then move out and we should see some clearing with possible breaks in the clouds during the morning hours. As noontime approaches, clouds will return and scattered showers are possible throughout the game. Temps will be in the low 60's but add 5 degrees if the sun comes out for any extended length of time. After the Bills victory, there is still a chance of showers but the untstable conditions should gradually reduce. In any event, the post game celebration will still be possible.
Thanks to Art in RTP - I have a cooking location no matter what the weather. So Hot Buffalo Wings will be cooking as early as 8:30 am.
I will be bringing along my laptop and - for those still able to log on to TBD - I will be updating my forecast several times in the next 48 - 72 hours.
-RichNJoisy
Pres,
CNJBBB
The GFS model (Global, low resolution compared to the regional higher resolution NAM model) has shifted markedly towards the NAM solution. This is the best we could have hoped for for Sunday. It is still going to be wet BUT the dry slot I mentioned in my earlier forecasts is still evident on the simulation but the instability behind the front will make for , at best, scattered showers conditions.
Now for the specifics:
Moderate to heavy rain will fall overnight from after midnight to around 5 or 6 am. The rain will then move out and we should see some clearing with possible breaks in the clouds during the morning hours. As noontime approaches, clouds will return and scattered showers are possible throughout the game. Temps will be in the low 60's but add 5 degrees if the sun comes out for any extended length of time. After the Bills victory, there is still a chance of showers but the untstable conditions should gradually reduce. In any event, the post game celebration will still be possible.
Thanks to Art in RTP - I have a cooking location no matter what the weather. So Hot Buffalo Wings will be cooking as early as 8:30 am.
I will be bringing along my laptop and - for those still able to log on to TBD - I will be updating my forecast several times in the next 48 - 72 hours.
-RichNJoisy
Pres,
CNJBBB
QUOTE(richNjoisy @ Sep 21 2006, 12:34 PM)
O.K> here's the update as of 1:30 pm Thursday:
The GFS model (Global, low resolution compared to the regional higher resolution NAM model) has shifted markedly towards the NAM solution. This is the best we could have hoped for for Sunday. It is still going to be wet BUT the dry slot I mentioned in my earlier forecasts is still evident on the simulation but the instability behind the front will make for , at best, scattered showers conditions.
Now for the specifics:
Moderate to heavy rain will fall overnight from after midnight to around 5 or 6 am. The rain will then move out and we should see some clearing with possible breaks in the clouds during the morning hours. As noontime approaches, clouds will return and scattered showers are possible throughout the game. Temps will be in the low 60's but add 5 degrees if the sun comes out for any extended length of time. After the Bills victory, there is still a chance of showers but the untstable conditions should gradually reduce. In any event, the post game celebration will still be possible.
Thanks to Art in RTP - I have a cooking location no matter what the weather. So Hot Buffalo Wings will be cooking as early as 8:30 am.
I will be bringing along my laptop and - for those still able to log on to TBD - I will be updating my forecast several times in the next 48 - 72 hours.
-RichNJoisy
Pres,
CNJBBB
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The GFS model (Global, low resolution compared to the regional higher resolution NAM model) has shifted markedly towards the NAM solution. This is the best we could have hoped for for Sunday. It is still going to be wet BUT the dry slot I mentioned in my earlier forecasts is still evident on the simulation but the instability behind the front will make for , at best, scattered showers conditions.
Now for the specifics:
Moderate to heavy rain will fall overnight from after midnight to around 5 or 6 am. The rain will then move out and we should see some clearing with possible breaks in the clouds during the morning hours. As noontime approaches, clouds will return and scattered showers are possible throughout the game. Temps will be in the low 60's but add 5 degrees if the sun comes out for any extended length of time. After the Bills victory, there is still a chance of showers but the untstable conditions should gradually reduce. In any event, the post game celebration will still be possible.
Thanks to Art in RTP - I have a cooking location no matter what the weather. So Hot Buffalo Wings will be cooking as early as 8:30 am.
I will be bringing along my laptop and - for those still able to log on to TBD - I will be updating my forecast several times in the next 48 - 72 hours.
-RichNJoisy
Pres,
CNJBBB
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Awesome! Thanks for keeping us informed...
QUOTE(udonkey @ Sep 21 2006, 12:57 PM)
Awesome! Thanks for keeping us informed...
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quick update - this internet is driving me CRAZY
soooooooooooooooslloooooooooooow
NOAA not updating their forecast but latest runs showing less intense rain leading up to early morning then scattered stuff until ~ 11 am - 12
kickoff may actually see some sun
soo
until update tomorrow -
scattered precip during morning tailgate (more at first, less chance as morning progresses)
*******************************
Noon - 7 pm
chance of scattered precip but breaks in clouds possible - and extended dry periods with some sun
windy - 10-15 with gustiness
Postgame celebration - slight chnc showers but mostly dry (except for drunkeness)
update tomorrow (tired after drive to WNY)
goodnight
-RichNJoisy
another quick update before we head to The Original Pancake House:
Weather forecast basically the same - except local weather forecasters now coming on board which is reassuring......
Sunday early: 2am - 8 am: Rain, heavy at times with some T-Storms, gusty winds.
Precip diminishes abruptly early Sunday morning. We then get into a scattered shower and very windy environment. Most scattered shower activity will occur from 8 am - noon.
Kickoff: Mostly dry but very windy 15-25 mph with gusts. Scattered showers possible but there should be breaks with sun during the Bills march up and down the field and , perhaps, right after a Chuuh-addd sack.
Temps in mid 60's but will FEEL colder (50's)
Post game celebration: Scattered showers but mostly dry with diminishing winds. Temps in low 60's dropping to upper 50's.
-RichNJoisy
Weather forecast basically the same - except local weather forecasters now coming on board which is reassuring......
Sunday early: 2am - 8 am: Rain, heavy at times with some T-Storms, gusty winds.
Precip diminishes abruptly early Sunday morning. We then get into a scattered shower and very windy environment. Most scattered shower activity will occur from 8 am - noon.
Kickoff: Mostly dry but very windy 15-25 mph with gusts. Scattered showers possible but there should be breaks with sun during the Bills march up and down the field and , perhaps, right after a Chuuh-addd sack.
Temps in mid 60's but will FEEL colder (50's)
Post game celebration: Scattered showers but mostly dry with diminishing winds. Temps in low 60's dropping to upper 50's.
-RichNJoisy
QUOTE(Guest_RichNJoisy_* @ Sep 23 2006, 08:03 AM)
another quick update before we head to The Original Pancake House:
Weather forecast basically the same - except local weather forecasters now coming on board which is reassuring......
Sunday early: 2am - 8 am: Rain, heavy at times with some T-Storms, gusty winds.
Precip diminishes abruptly early Sunday morning. We then get into a scattered shower and very windy environment. Most scattered shower activity will occur from 8 am - noon.
Kickoff: Mostly dry but very windy 15-25 mph with gusts. Scattered showers possible but there should be breaks with sun during the Bills march up and down the field and , perhaps, right after a Chuuh-addd sack.
Temps in mid 60's but will FEEL colder (50's)
Post game celebration: Scattered showers but mostly dry with diminishing winds. Temps in low 60's dropping to upper 50's.
-RichNJoisy
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Weather forecast basically the same - except local weather forecasters now coming on board which is reassuring......
Sunday early: 2am - 8 am: Rain, heavy at times with some T-Storms, gusty winds.
Precip diminishes abruptly early Sunday morning. We then get into a scattered shower and very windy environment. Most scattered shower activity will occur from 8 am - noon.
Kickoff: Mostly dry but very windy 15-25 mph with gusts. Scattered showers possible but there should be breaks with sun during the Bills march up and down the field and , perhaps, right after a Chuuh-addd sack.
Temps in mid 60's but will FEEL colder (50's)
Post game celebration: Scattered showers but mostly dry with diminishing winds. Temps in low 60's dropping to upper 50's.
-RichNJoisy
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It's getting better all the tiiiiiime *better, better, beeeh-ter*
Getting So much better all the time!
QUOTE(JÂy RÛßeÒ @ Sep 23 2006, 07:22 AM)
It's getting better all the tiiiiiime *better, better, beeeh-ter*
Getting So much better all the time!
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Getting So much better all the time!
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This will very likely be my final update - lunch at Chef's ahhhhh - sorry I digress
Latest model runs - both models - have pushed the heaviest rain SOUTH of Orchard Park. In addition, the dry tongue reaches and encompasses the entire WNY region for most of the game - still windy and SOME scattered stuff wil be about but it will be of the light variety and should not interfere with the Tailgate . The game will only be impacted by the winds
Post game celebratiion has a slightly higher chance of some rain but it will be light and brief in the times it occurs. Should have no effect on the post game revelry
Therefore, I am not altering my previous forecasts except to reduce the intensity of the 2 am - 8am as this rain apparently will not extend northward to our region (the midwest - southern portion - will get Nailed. TOO BAD). Post 8 am -windy but mostly dry - only some slight scattered showers. Kickoff: dry and windy. Game. Same.
See you all at Danny's and at the Tailgate.
Go Bills!
-RichNJoisy
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